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We had exhibited at the Hong Kong International Jewelry Manufacture’s Show 2016, held at the Convention & Exhibition Centre from 24/11/2016 to 27/11/2016, for 4 days．
The United States presidential election which attracted worldwide attention was held on November 8th. This election provided big surprise and upset with Mr. Donald Trump was elected for the 45th president of the United States, and then shook the world. This also caused confusion in global financial market． Because it was hard to read what kind of economic policy Mr. Trump would propose and uncertainty arose in the future of interest rate hike and commerce policy, investment money flowed into security assets such as yen and gold; Japanese yen became strong to 101 level and the gold gained high price of 1,338 dollars per troy ounce. The Nikkei Stock Average plunged over 1000 yen at a time due to the concern that the export profit of the Japanese company would be aggravated by a strong yen. Also, the stocks and the exchange rate of the emerging countries had fallen across the board．
特にトランプ氏の当選で多大な影響を被りそうなメキシコのペソは急落し、一時1ドル20ペソ台後半と過去最安値を更新しました。しかし、翌日にはトランプ氏が主張するインフラ投資の拡大で財政負担が強まるとしてアメリカの長期金利が上昇し、日米金利差が拡大し状況は一変、円に流れていたマネーはアメリカへと逆流し、円は106円台へと急落し、日経平均株価も1000円戻す事となり金融市場は乱高下し、現在では、時期大統領による減税やインフラ投資を見越した米金利の上昇が起点となりドル高・円安が進み、円は113円台と大幅な円安となっています。
Especially, Mexican pesos which might suffer greatly from Mr. Trump’s election plummeted to 20 pesos against a dollar level and renewed the past record. However, on the next day, the long-term interest rate rose by the speculation of which financial burden increases with the expansion of infrastructure investment claimed by Mr. Trump. Situation had been But the long-term interest rate differential between the US and Japan and the dollar exchange rate are highly linked, and the long-term interest rate differential is expanding at present． And, from the viewpoint of the difference between Japan and the US interest rates, there is also a voice that the yen became weak too much．
Financial aggravation is concerned about by a policy of Mr. Trump, and eventually inflation and currency depreciation are at the risk．And it is said that policies such as raising tariffs and restricting immigration will raise import prices and labor costs, which may cause inflation and transit decline also． Mr．Trump criticized other countries’ currency depreciation in order to protect the U.S. industries, and then it would not be deniable to see strong yen and weak dollar situation in the future．
In addition, even FRB suggests a possibility of the interest rate increase at the meeting on December 13th and 14th, it become uncertain, due to the concern about the decline of business investment and personal consumption caused by Mr．Trump’s policy．The possibility of the rise in interest rate would be receded if FRB does not increase the rate in December, because Mr．Trump spoke that he would not reappoint Mrs. Yellen as a chairman of FRB during the election and he will be the president in January．If so, the dollar depreciation and the yen appreciation may accelerate. And since Mr．Trump insists America First, it is expected that diplomatic relations with each country will change greatly in the future．
In addition, the major change has happened in India. Prime Minister Modi of India announced that 1000 and 500 rupee bill would be abolished about 4 hours after the speech on 8th, and instructed to change to the new 2000 and 500 rupee bill which will be issued after 10th, or deposit it at a bank. It was explained that the reason was that the extremist group conducting terrorist attacks in India counterfeit banknotes massively then used it as funds and cash settlement for tax evasion was done in the private sector. In India, it is said that underground economy by cash settlement is mainstream and people who only own cash and do not pay taxes will cover about 50％ of GDP. For this reason, the government took the plunge to darkness funds measures related to tax evasion and crime．
As a result, people rushes into a bank to exchange bill every day, long queue is made and lacking of a new bill is being happened. Also, 50％ of the Indian population has no bank account and they cannot deposit their money． This caused the big confusion for their daily life. It might affect to our industry as well. Because, diamond business volume in India is one of the biggest in the world and our industry has many transactions in cash during commerce． It seems that the style of commercial transaction will change greatly in the future．In addition, it seems that the money flowed into gold and the gold price rose by 20％ at a stroke in India．
Currently, currencies of emerging countries have fallen sharply, political unrest is occurred in Korea, the economies of Europe and China are sluggish, and it is a situation that can be said that it is very bad worldwide. This jewelry show reflected the bad situation in China and India as well. The number of buyers in both countries had decreased greatly, and the impression that we had on the first day was very quiet. Low-priced items were mainly sold and it seemed to represent the bad economy．
However, many local people in Hong Kong visited on the Saturdays’ and Sundays’ afternoon and it made the venue looked crowded. As a once a year event, our customer, who purchased last year, were enjoying choosing what to buy this year. We also could enjoy helping our customer to choose and had a sense of fulfillment from them．
This was the last jewellery show of this year. And we felt that this year was tumultuous year．It is a gift of help from every one of you that we could manage to overcome this turbulent year in this way. And, it seems that next year will be a year of great change. We will not be satisfied with the current situation, and will strive very hard to deal with the change of times．
Finally, we would like to give our sincere gratitude to all of you, and hope to meet all of you again next year．
Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year．
